Atlanta Major play-ins: I told you so... but I also did NOT see that coming
Bleed are through, but I did not expect DarkZero, Wolves, and NiP to be nearly eliminated.
Let’s get this out of the way immediately, I like to say “I told you so”, therefore: I told you so.
As I predicted, Bleed Esports took two victories against CYCLOPS athlete gaming, first a 7-3 in the upper bracket and then a 2-1 (4-7, 7-0, 8-6) in the lower bracket. To CAG’s credit, they got really close — unsurprisingly, given how close they have been before as well — but the Wu "Reeps96" Weichen factor was too much for them to handle (as I had anticipated).
In the 2-1 victory, Reeps96 had 36 kills to 23 deaths, while his closest counterpart on CAG was Reon "Anitun" Sakai with 31 kills to 23 deaths. Only one other player on CAG went positive in K-D, Sho "BlackRay" Hasegawa with 26-24, while two other Bleed players had positive K-Ds. These stats correspond well with the brutal 7-0 Bleed delivered on the second map of Kafe and also echo the first day’s 7-3 drubbing.
The number of people backing CAG over Bleed was baffling and I hope the past two days have demonstrated why.
That said…
Fury, Bliss, and Crest?!
(Alternative header text: DarkZero, Wolves, and NiP?!)
Wow.
All three of DarkZero Esports, Wolves Esports, and Ninjas in Pyjamas came within a hair of being eliminated — simultaneously so for the former two.
All three games (DarkZero vs FURY, Wolves vs Bliss, and NiP vs Crest) went to the third map and the former two both went to the 15th round on that decider map. NiP began with a 5-7 map one loss before (barely) recovering with two 7-5 wins, while DarkZero and Wolves lost map one in shocking 3-7 and 2-7 fashions.
DarkZero recovered with a 7-5 map two, while Wolves had a slightly better 7-4 win, but both were pushed to the absolute brink in stunning fashion on map three. Roberto "Panbazou" Feliciano, winner and MVP of the Six Major Charlotte just last year, described this Bo3 against FURY — and not the 3-2 Major grand-final against Astralis — as the “craziest series” he has “ever played”.
Adrenaline and recency bias may certainly be a large part of the reason that Panbazou made such a claim, but the fact that the proclamation itself indicates that FURY were on fire. It’s no fluke that they beat Bleed twice in the Asia LCQ for this Major — it’s just their lack of luck that they were put in Group C.
Both they and Bliss had ample opportunities to close out their wins well before overtime, but inexperience seemed to lead to desperation and the more experienced heads on DarkZero and Wolves were able to prevail. Good news for them, however, is that both FURY and Bliss will get a second chance in three months as both have qualified to the Six Invitational 2024.
As for Ninjas in Pyjamas, they had to be rescued by Gustavo "Wizard" Gomes, who recovered after a shockingly poor game against Geekay yesterday. If not for him, Crest would have certainly progressed — but, as a famous Italian chef once said, if my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bicycle.
I certainly got the expectations of a clean NiP first place in Group A wrong, though I am very happy to see my overall predictions for the other three groups were on point. I just had no idea that it was going to be this close for DarkZero, Wolves, and NiP — or that Geekay would take the upper-bracket win over NiP on the first day.
It’s time now for Phase 2 — the 16-team playoffs or, as many people consider it, the actual Major.
The initial set of matches are up, but it seems that the seeding is incorrect. We’ll have to see whether the matchups change, as the “correct” seedings should give a match of Bleed versus SCARZ and M80 versus G2 Esports instead.
However, the faith I had in Bleed to get second place in the play-ins was not delusional — whether they play SCARZ or M80 to begin, they are not making it to the quarter-finals at the end of these Phase 2 Swiss-format playoffs.
For those who have been confused where some fan-favourites like Virtus.pro, M80, Team BDS, and w7m esports have been — here they are.
It has been a great set of play-in matches and I look forward to Phase 2. The quality of games should only get better and better from here.