R6 Atlanta Major groups revealed: It's Group B for Bleed
LOS will be clear Group B winners, but Bleed have great odds at making it to Phase 2.
Following the conclusion of the Brazil LCQ on 15 October, where LOS beat Netshoes Miners 2-0 in the grand-final, the Phase 1 (a.k.a. play-ins) groups were announced. It’s an interesting set of groups for the APAC teams, with significantly differing perspectives depending on which team you look at.
FURY will probably feel hard done by, as they got one of the toughest groups with world champions G2 Esports and the vastly experienced DarkZero Esports alongside them. They also have to contend with the Knights, who have enjoyed a lot more international practice than they have and will not be pushovers.
Team Bliss in Group D will also be cursing their luck, though it was always going to be tough coming from the lowest-ranked region of Oceania, as they have to face a fearsome, experienced trio of Wolves Esports, Spacestation Gaming, and Alpha Atheris.
In Group A, SANDBOX Gaming will also be hopeful of making it through to Phase 2, as they only have to beat Crest Gaming — a domestic APAC rival — and the vastly inexperienced Geekay Esports. SANDBOX have years of Major and Six Invitational experience. Crest, on the other hand, could pull off an upset against SANDBOX but might find it tough against a Geekay that could be a challenge for their level.
However, I wager that most APAC fans will have their eyes affixed firmly on Group B. Three APAC teams find themselves here, meaning that one APAC team will certainly be heading to Phase 2 (the 16-team playoffs).
LOS are certain to comfortably beat all three APAC teams, but two playoff places per Phase 1 group makes it an exciting APAC-on-APAC three-way battle for the second. And — hot take — I think Bleed Esports will come through for that second place.
Prevailing sentiment on Reddit seems to be that CYCLOPS athlete gaming (CAG) will be that APAC team, but their international record is appalling enough for me to disagree.
The Japanese team has never made it to the playoffs of any international event, extending that ignominious streak to seven attempts. The closest they got was the Six Mexico Major in Aug. 2021, where they crumbled under the pressure to allow a tiebreaker match for the first and (so far) only time in Rainbow Six history — although that loss was to the eventual Major champions, Team oNe. Their star player Karl "Alem4o" Zarth had later described that first match against CAG their hardest one at the event.
They also got close at the Six Jönköping Major in Nov. 2022, where they lost out to Black Dragons by round-difference.
Keen supporters of CAG will also point out that most of those seven attempts were against international teams only. In fact, they only faced another APAC team in the group stage of the oddly-formatted Six Invitational 2021 where they lost out to Cloud9 by — you guessed it — a 5-7 head-to-head loss.
So, yes, it is true that CAG often get close — three of their seven attempts at playoffs qualification have been extremely close. But seven attempts is a large volume of failures, no matter how they come about. The way I see it, these are indicative of an issue within the organisation itself. Perhaps it’s a mental issue where their players cannot manage the pressure internationally, but CAG (the organisation) have seemingly been reluctant to hire a sports psychologist (a la Team Liquid) according to their analyst, who said in Nov. 2022 that "Japan is behind in the field of psychology".
Though Fuji3 had expressed a desire to sign an analyst and perhaps even a sports psychologist after the Jönköping Major, that has not become reality yet. While he was not forthcoming as to why, he reiterated that the team was looking for one "as soon as possible". As such, CAG will be one of five teams at the Invitational to only have one support staff member.
— The situation with CAG ahead of the Six Invitational 2023
Bleed Esports, on the other hand, are slightly behind in cumulative experience, but have an extremely powerful core in the right places.
Patrick "MentalistC" Fan was part of the upset-causing Aerowolf team in 2019, before pushing Fnatic to a sensational main-stage appearance at the Six Invitational 2020. Wu "Reeps96" Weichen, who was rightly criticised for the timing and manner in which he left Dire Wolves (giving up a chance to play at the Six Invitational 2023), is a lethal gunner who seems to be very comfortable in the Bleed setup. Most recently, he managed to reel off 25 kills in a mere 11 rounds (dying just four times) at 3AM against Elevate in the SEA Last Chance Qualifier.
Finally, they are backed up by the star player-turned-manager Jeremy "HysteRiX" Tan, who is very experienced inside and outside of the game and could be a strong guiding force for the extremely young players under him.
Bleed will need to work on their BO3 map pool, but a familiar quantity such as CAG — who they likely scrimmage a lot — means that they do not also need to contend with a vastly different play style. For a young, 9-month old team like them, this is a much bigger boost to them than it is to CAG.
They aren’t perfect, as their twin losses to FURY indicate, but they are (in my opinion) capable of seeing off CAG.
Finally, I should also briefly talk about the third APAC team here — Talon. The Koreans have not been playing against as strong opponents as either CAG or Bleed, nor do they seem to match up in terms of strategy or gun-skill. They are not entirely pushovers, but they are certainly ranked last in a group that is — on paper — thoroughly above their current level.
While Talon may manage to sneak into the playoffs (never say never), their role will largely come down to how hard of a fight they give to CAG and Bleed and how that will affect the tiebreakers should CAG and Bleed be tied on points.
To sum up, CAG may be viewed as stronger on paper, but that same paper gives an extremely poor account of their Major and Invitational results — so much so that a first-time Major team like Bleed is my pick to beat them to that second place.